ALLIED Group Mortgage Company
NEWS and EVENTS

An ongoing compilation of news and events we hope will be of interest to those who visit our pages. Weekly, ALLIED Group posts charts on mortgage market interest rates and at times other indices of interest to visitors to these pages.

A Special Notice

Recently we began charging a refundable application deposit of $200 if an appraisal is not needed or $500 if an appraisal is needed, subject to actual costs being deducted, on Internet applications (this fee may be adjusted from time to time as conditions warrant). The reason for the charge is a large majority of Internet applications were received from people just testing the system, and/or people who wanted to see if they could be approved for a loan but were not serious about obtaining a mortgage loan. Considerable costs were being incurred on these applications which never closed. The application deposit is intended to limit the applications we receive to those of serious borrowers. We apologize for this inconvenience, however this change will allow us to better serve our customers needs as our time and efforts will be expended on serious applications only.

Food for Thought as You Consider Refinancing Your Mortgage.

Mortgage interest rates are declining and they may fall very rapidly as they did in 1987. It is more likely they will fall in spurts as they did in 1992 and 1993. As a result, mortgagors have to consider at what point they want to refinance their mortgage loan because the costs associated with refinancing can require a long time to recover at the reduced interest rate. Each additional refinance (a mortgagor does) adds additional costs to be recovered before actual benefit can be received by the lower interest rate. An alternative is to refinance using a "cost saver" mortgage. This mortgage loan has a slightly higher interest rate than one with fees and points, but you instantly receive the benefit of the lower interest rate without the typical costs and can readily take advantage of additional declines in mortgage interest rates as they become available.

6/4/99 - Mortgage interest rates were steady today.  The big economic news was the May jobs report.  The May jobs number was seen as soft, but wage pressure is up. US non-farm payrolls rose only 11,000 in May - far below the market expectation that about 225,000 jobs would be added.  Average hourly earnings were up a sharper than expected .4% in May compared with the .3% rise that was forecast.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 5.05%, up 3 from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.48% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were flat and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 1/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (96 30/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 97 2/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 96 31/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 96 23/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

6/3/99 - Mortgage interest rates had improved some early today, then by 2:00 P.M. CDT the market were mixed.  Economic news probably had little involvement in today's activity, the market is trying to  correct itself from an oversold condition. The National Association of Purchasing Management released its non-manufacturing indices for May. Overall activity fell to 60.0 from 64.0 in April. The price index fell to 54.0 from April's 55.5. Remember, any number above 50 means growth, increasing price or activity, therefore the sector is still experiencing strong growth. April factory orders declined 1.2%, a little more than anticipated. New claims for unemployment insurance rose 4,000 for the week ended May 27th, the employment situation continues to reflect a very tight labor market (see charts).

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 5.02%, unchanged from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.46% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 4/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 1/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (96 30/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 97 2/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 96 30/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 96 22/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

6/2/99 - Mortgage interest rates are higher again today. Mortgage loans being made now should have an opportunity to refinance in the not too distant future. Interest rates may continue to rise, but the economy will begin to be affected by the higher rates. This morning the U. S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of the Census and the U. S. Department of Housing released its estimate of new housing sales in April (see charts). Sales of new housing jumped 9.3% to near a new cycle high of 978,000 units, seasonally adjusted and annualized. After peaking in November of last year at 985,000, sales of new housing fell to a low of 896,000 in March of this year. The April number is extremely strong, but it is data some 6 weeks old. On April 15th, the Fannie Mae net yield for a mandatory deliver within 30 days was 6.87%, with a low in April of 6.77% and a high of 6.99%. May had a low of 7.01% and a high of 7.35%. For the first 2 days of June the average net yield required is 7.45%. In other words, the interest rate for a new mortgage has risen 1/2% since April. Additionally, stocks are lower again today.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 5.02%, down 3 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.46% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 5/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 8/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (96 26/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 96 30/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 96 31/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 96 22/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

6/1/99 - Mortgage interest rates are higher again today after the long weekend. The most significant news right now is the stock markets are selling off, while interest rates are rising. The DJIA peaked at 11,031.95 on May 7th and today it should close a little higher than 10,400. Interest rates have been rising since last October and may be the cause of the weakness in stocks, eventually rising interest rates will push stock prices lower (i.e. that was the cause of the 1987 stock market crash. For the record, on October 15, 1993 the FNMA net yield for a 30 day mandatory commitment bottomed at 6.47%, after a run up in yields, interest rates next bottomed on October 5, 1998 at 6.24%, and have risen since to 7.45% (an increase of 1.21%). The real question is: How high do interest rates need to go to choke off economic activity? We identified this last week, and it is not a good omen. On the economic news front, the leading economic indicators for April were released and they declined 0.1%, and March was revised from up 0.1% to unchanged. The National Association of Purchasing Management released its May numbers. The overall index rose to 55.2 from April's 52.8 and the last time the index was this high was in October of 1997.. The price index rose to 52.2 from April's 49.9, the last time it was 50 or higher (meaning prices are rising) was in December 1997, and the employment index rose to 53.5 from April's 49.5. It would appear the manufacturing sector is recovering very nicely. At 4:00 o'clock central daylight time the DOW had recovered and was up about 36, while both the S & P 500 and the NASDAQ were down for the day.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 5.05%, up 11 basis points from Friday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.45% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 18/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 19/32's from Friday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (96 31/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 97 3/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 97 4/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 97 0/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/28/99 - Mortgage interest rates are flat today on little activity. The Fannie Mae net yield rose 9 basis points, either Fannie Mae is very bearish or more likely they are protecting themselves from the long weekend. This morning the University of Michigan reportedly released its May final consumer confidence survey and sentiment was up to 106.8 from the early May reading of 106.4, and 104.6 in April. In May expectations were 97.6 versus early May's 95.6 and April's 97.4. Both are very strong readings for these indices.The Chicago chapter of the National Association of Purchasing Management reportedly released its May data today and it reflected a slowing of the growth in business with its index fell to 57.9% from Aprils 63.3%, prices fell to 52.5% from 56.7%. While this shows some weakening, it is still a very strong number.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.94%, unchanged from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.35% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 2/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 1/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (97 17/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 97 21/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 97 23/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 97 19/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/27/99 - Mortgage interest rates are higher today, for no particular reason. The economic news released gave a picture of a somewhat weaker economy than expectation. This is no big deal, because the economy is roaring in any case. New claims for unemployment insurance for the week ended May 22nd were unchanged at 300,000 from the previous week (the previous week had been estimated at 299,000, see charts). Affirming there is continuing strength in the employment of American workers. The growth of real GDP in the first quarter was revised down from an annualized rate of 4.5% to a rate of 4.1%. Still very strong numbers for the economy. The Conference Board reported that its April help-wanted index drop 1 point to 87. Once again, the unusual is occurring. Interest rates are rising and stock (equity) prices are falling. This cannot last forever. If interest rates rise, then the economy will slow because of the higher cost of money. If stocks fall, eventually the Fed will have to increase money supply to lower interest rates, in order to jump start the economy.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.94%, up 4 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.26% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 13/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 13/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (97 19/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 97 23/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 97 24/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 97 20/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/26/99 - Mortgage interest rates are up today. The only news released was durable goods orders for the month of April and they were down 2.3%, while ex-transportation (without including orders for transportation equipment) orders were up 0.9%. Durable goods is very volatile number so analysts tend to ignore the monthly releases.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.90%, up 2 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.21% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 8/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 6/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 0/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 4/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 4/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 0/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/25/99 - Mortgage interest rates are unchanged from yesterday. Both existing single-family home sales for April and the conference Board's consumer sentiment for May were released this morning (see charts). There were substantial revisions to the existing home sales. In April home sales were estimated at 5,240, March previously reported at 5,050,000 was revised to 5,420,000, for a 3.3% decline in sales. Consumer sentiment remains very strong at 135.8 for May, up 0.3 from a upwardly revised April number.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.84%, up slightly from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.21% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 1/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 2/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 2/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 13/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 10/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 6/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/24/99 - Mortgage interest rates are mixed to slightly improved today, on little news. There is no major economic news expected this week, so interest rate analyst's are not expecting much activity or movement in interest rates for this week. Such anticipation, fairly often, turns out not to be correct. Additionally, the stock markets are weaker again today, possibly giving some support to interest rate markets..

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.81%, unchanged from Friday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.23% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 2/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 3/32's from Friday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 1/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 12/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 8/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 4/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/21/99 - Mortgage interest rates are lower today on little news and a weak stock market. In the interest of having something to write about, we offer the following. The Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters was released this morning, revising estimates upward.  The survey of 37 economic forecasters said they expected real GDP to increase at an annual rate of 3.2% in the 2nd quarter and 3.9% for all of 1999. The survey found CPI in the 2nd quarter is expected to be 2.7%, mostly caused by the increase in energy prices, and for the year it is expected to be 2.1%. The survey also indicated that CPI is expected to average 2.5% over the next 10 years. Interest rate expectations have all risen also. The 3 month Treasury bill is expected to average 4.5% over the next 3 quarters, 4.5% for all of 1999 and 4.6 for all of 2000. The Treasury 10 year is expected to hold steady and average 5.3% in 1999 and 5.4% in 2000, it currently is at 5.52%, so these forecasters, as a group, must feel we are approaching a rally of some sort.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.81%, down 2 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.22% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 2/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 2/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (97 31/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 10/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 5/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 1/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/20/99 - Mortgage interest rates are mixed today, not reacting to the strong economic news released. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell back below the 300,000 level to 299,000 and the 4 week moving average fell to 302,750 (see charts). The U. S. trade deficit widened to a new monthly record again in March. The deficit was $19.7 billion. At some point in the future these trade deficits will be a problem, however for now they are reducing demand for domestic products at a time when the U. S. economy is operating near full capacity (i.e. the new claims report above), and making it difficult for domestic producers to raise prices.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.83%, down 2 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.24% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 1/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 2/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (97 29/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 8/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 3/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 97 31/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/19/99 - Mortgage interest rates are higher today from 2:00 P.M. CDT yesterday and even higher from yesterday at noon when we took out yesterday's prices, except for the yield on Fannie Mae's mandatory net yield. The weak housing starts and permits data enabled interest rates to improve. A little after 1:00 P.M. CDT the Fed announced it was not raising short term interest rates, but is was changing its bias to err on the side of restraint (tightening) and expected the next Fed move would be to higher interest rates. As discussed yesterday the current level of mortgage interest rates have reached a point where they are having an impact on housing sales, and have pretty much wiped out refinances. Higher interest rates, if they come, will slow housing quickly. It is very difficult to make a determination of how high interest rates need to rise to choke off economic activity. But with a 100 basis point move on the Fannie Mae mandatory yield, and the Fed's statement, and being a contrarian, a corrective rally seems like a possibility. We still think we will see higher interest rates before this rising cycle is over.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.85%, up 2 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.18% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 8/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 4/32's from yesterday at 12:00 A.M. CDT (97 29/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 6/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 4/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 2/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/18/99 - Mortgage interest rates improved today, not waiting to see what action the Fed would take. The bounce was caused by the release of new housing starts (see charts) for April. Starts fell 10.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,574,000, and much weaker than expectation. Building permits fell 5.1%, also much more than analyst's had expected. There is an old saying; "Housing leads the economy into recession and housing leads the economy out of recession". We are not predicting a recession, but housing may be in the process of becoming a drag on the economy. On a seasonally adjusted basis housing starts peaked in January of this year with an annual growth rate of 17%, as of April of this year the annual growth rate had fallen to 2%. New housing permits peaked in December 1998 at 17%, as of April 1999 the annual growth rate has fallen to 2.5%. Another interesting item is the Fannie Mae net yield, for purchasing mortgages 30 days out on a mandatory delivery basis, hit its low yield on October 5, 1998 of 6.24%, yesterday the daily yield had risen to 7.25%. A significant move upward in mortgage interest rates. This move would be expected to slow housing, at least temporarily, while potential home purchasers adjust to the higher interest rates.

At 12:00 A.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.83%, down 2 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.20% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 7/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 7/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 6/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 13/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 9/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 6/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/17/99 - Mortgage interest rates are higher again today, primarily caused by concern the Fed will increase short rates tomorrow. We view the possibility of the Fed easing tomorrow as unlikely. We expect the Fed will need more evidence to tighten than one month of CPI. There has been a lot discounting negative future news in the interest rate markets, so it is hard to say whether or not the market will rally or sell off further, regardless of what action the Fed takes. Another interesting occurrence taking place is that as yields rise, the equity markets are falling. Two days does not make a trend, however, usually when stock prices start to fall because of interest rates rising, those interest rates are nearing the levels they need to be to choke off economic activity.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.85%, up 3 basis points from Friday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.25% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 9/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 10/32's from Friday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (97 31/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 6/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 3/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 97 30/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/14/99 - Mortgage interest rates rose rapidly this morning on the release of U. S. consumer prices for April. CPI rose 0.7% and its core rate was up 0.4%, both significantly higher than expectation. Aside from rising gasoline prices affecting the CPI, the core rate was higher primarily due to apparel, tobacco, food and shelter, according to the U. S. Department of Labor. Also this is the highest monthly increase since October of 1990, when it also increased by 0.7%. The Federal Reserve Board released its April estimates of industrial production and capacity utilization. The release reported that industrial production had been flat between October of last year and February of this year and now it was beginning to increase again. Industrial production rose 0.5% in March and 0.6% in April. Capacity utilization remains relatively stable at 80.6% in April, 80.4% in March and 80.2% in February and below the 80.8% and 80.7% set in November and December of last year. The University of Michigan released its early May sentiment and expectation readings and sentiment rose to 106.4 from April's 104.6, while expectation declined to 95.6 from April's 97.4. Both indices are near record level highs, reflecting very positive consumer attitudes about the U. S. economy.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.82%, up 12 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.20% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 18/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 23/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 8/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 15/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 11/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 10/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/13/99 - Mortgage interest rates improved nicely today, with lots of economic news being released and the Treasury auction being completed yesterday. U. S. producer prices for April rose 0.5%, slightly above estimates and as expected they were fueled by a massive jump in gasoline prices last month, in fact, a record rise of 29.1% for the month. New claims for unemployment uninsurance were unchanged for the week ended May 8 at 303,000 and the 4 week moving average stands at 304,250 new claims (see charts). Retail sales for April rose 0.1%, somewhat lower than expectation (see charts).

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.70%, down 4 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.07% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 6/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 7/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 26/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 99 2/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 99 3/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 99 1/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/12/99 - Mortgage interest rates are mixed today, which is surprising considering all the news the market had to deal with today. Russia's President Yeltsin fired his popular Prime Minister and his entire cabinet. Treasury Secretary Rubin resigned, to be effective around July 4, 1999. The U. S. Bureau of Labor announced it was undertaking a study to determine the extent stock options are affecting income. Apparently these options have not been considered in compensation analysis by the bureau and they could lead to a considerable adjustment on wage growth estimates by the bureau. One of the reasons the Fed has not had to raise rates, has been able to rapidly increase money supply, and the economy has stayed strong is wage growth has remain weak. If it turns out this analysis determines that the reason wage growth has remained soft is the issuing of stock options, in lieu of cash payments, then a restatement of wage growth could upset the markets.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.74%, down 2 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.11% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were unchanged and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were unchanged also from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 19/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 29/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 26/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 27/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/11/99 - Mortgage interest rates are higher today,  with prices of debt issues being dragged down by the first leg of the Treasury Auction. The U.S. Department of Labor today reported preliminary productivity data--as measured by output per hour of all persons--for the first quarter of 1999. The estimate for productivity gains in the non-farm sector of the economy was an increase of 4.0% annualized. This was a better number than analysts expected, but was lower than the 4.3% revised number for the 4th quarter 1998. There could be more pressure on mortgage interest rates today and tomorrow as a result of the sizeable Treasury auctions on both days.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.76%, up 2 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.13% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 4/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 5/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 18/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 98 29/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 26/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 26/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/10/99 - Mortgage interest rates are mixed today, and no economic news was scheduled to be released. Treasury debt was somewhat stronger than mortgages, however trading activity remained light, probably waiting for later in the week when the news gets heavy. This week we should receive April CPI, industrial production, producer prices and retail sales.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.74%, down 1 basis point from Friday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.09% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 2/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 3/32's from Friday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 22/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 99 1/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 31/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 31/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/7/99 - Mortgage interest rates tried to do better this morning, but finally gave up and closed mixed on the day. The employment report was released this morning and new employment in the non-farm sector was up 234,000, about what was expected. The unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.3% (see charts), and earnings growth was also modest. Both the stock and interest rate markets took heart from the data, which reflected a continuing strong economy, little inflationary pressure, and a job market that is not becoming even tighter than it is already. Concerns about rising commodity prices, the recovery of , at least, some of the world economies, and Fed Chairman Greenspans comments of yesterday seem to have put an early halt to the decline in interest rates. The yield spread between monthly average 10 year Treasury yields and monthly average conventional mortgage interest rates is contracting again and this is an indication that potential buyers of mortgage backed securities are less concerned about a renewed refinance risk (causing early retirement of mortgages within the securities). Additionally, today the Treasury 30 year broke through the 5.80% level, at 2:00 P.M. CDT it stood at 5.82. Possibly this could lead to some buyers coming into the market to obtain this new high yield (since August 1998).

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.75%, down 3 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.07% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 2/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 3/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 24/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 99 3/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 28/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 28/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/6/99 - Mortgage interest rates resumed their upward trend today. The economic news today was rather bland and would not be expected to affect interest rate markets. New claims for unemployment insurance (see charts) rose to 301,000 for the week ended May 1, still at historical low levels. While unemployment insurance benefits being paid fell to 2.161,000 for the week ended April 24, also at historical low levels. Interest rates seem to be reacting mainly to the recent increases in commodity prices and today's guarded comments by Fed Chairman Greenspan that the world economy seems to be beginning its recovery.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.78%, up 6 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.08% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 6/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 8/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 22/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 99 1/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 98 31/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 98 31/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/5/99 - Mortgage interest rates are mixed to unchanged today, not gaining strength from the weak stock markets. The National Association of Purchasing Management reportedly released its non-manufacturing report today and it continues to reflect strength in the non-manufacturing sector. Similar to the manufacturing report it is reporting improving strength in prices also, a sign to be wary of if you want lower interest rates.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.72%, down 4 basis points from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.02% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were unchanged and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were up about 2/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 30/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 99 9/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 99 8/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 99 8/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/4/99 - Mortgage interest rates rose today, after spending the early morning rather flat. At about 9:00 A.M. CDT March housing completions were released at up 12.6%, the highest level since April 1987. Also released were the leading economic indicators for March at up 0.1% and up for the 6th straight month. These two items were enough to start interest rates rising again today.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.76%, unchanged from yesterday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.01% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 3/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 5/32's from yesterday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (98 30/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 99 9/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 99 6/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 99 7/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).

5/3/99 - Mortgage interest rates rose again today on a continuing flow of strong economic news. In March both personal income and personal expenditures rose 0.4%. The National Association of Purchasing Management reportedly released its April indices and the index fell to 52.8 from March's 54.3. This report was still strong, but not as strong as the regional report out of Chicago on Friday. One real potential problem came in the price component, where prices paid rose to 49.9 from 43.2, having bottomed in December at 31.1. There is more and more evidence that the declines in prices paid in the past are now correcting themselves and even beginning to increase in some areas of the economy.

At 2:00 P.M. CDT, the yield on the one year U.S. Treasury Bill (the index used most frequently for the one year ARM) was 4.75%, unchanged from Friday.  The Fannie Mae net yield was quoted at 7.02% this morning. The 15 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 2/32's and the 30 year mortgage-backed securities were down about 1/32 from Friday at 2:00 P.M. CDT (99 1/32's for the 6%-15 year Fannie Mae CMBS, 99 12/32's for the 6%-15 year GNMA, 99 11/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year Fannie  Mae CMBS and, 99 12/32's for the 6 1/2%-30 year GNMA).